- in Strategy Research


The  attendance of an important personality like the Prince Turki al-Faisal to  the Conference of the Iranian opposition is  a rare event, but it reflects a qualitative change in the Gulf strategy toward Iran, and unusual  political support   shown in public that has not  happened before ;  it is an issue  imposed by the nature of the variables in the region and the western silence on the persistence of the Iranian encroachment, which has become an existential threat to the Middle East .The question in this context,    is  started a policy of “reverse engineering” of the Gulf   about the Iranian regime, and what the implications of such a policy on the both sides  of the Arab Gulf  and Iran?

It  was not  come to the   the mind of political decision-maker in Iran, that the date of the ninth of April  2003, is the date of receiving the Grand Prize from former US President George W. Bush’s administration, and we mean this award the occupation of the United States to Iraq. As this event marked the beginning of extended Iranian influence in Iraq  contrast to the complete absence of the Arab role in it. This influence  was demonstrated in the era of the rule of former Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki “2006/2014”, where  his domestic and foreign policies  were identified with the policies of the Iranian regime in the Arab region and the evidence for this  identification is  his support and pro-regime of Bashar al-Assad, the system as long as   Nuri Maliki has complained of it  as a main source of terrorism in Iraq !! But this attitude is  completely changed after the Syrian people’s revolution against Bashar al-Assad and the change came at the behest of the Iranian regime. As Iraq has been turned in the era of Nuri al-Maliki   the leading financial supporter  of both the Iranian regime in the face of the international embargo that was imposed on it, and financial supportive  also to Bashar al-Assad against his own people revolution.

As a result of the positive relationship with Iran and Syria-after  the revolution –  it was  the tension of the relationship  with Saudi Arabia  noting that  merely  to mention  the name of Nuri al-Maliki in the  royal palace of the late King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz  is not acceptable  by the late king and this signal to his disturbance from al-Malki policies  congruent with the Iranian regime.  The   emergence of  the organization Daash terrorist  and its control  on the Iraqi scene in June 2014,  which may be described by the “soft” on the Nineveh province, followed by the Iraqi provinces with a Sunni character led  to accelerate the departure of Nuri al-Maliki  from  the Presidency of the executive  power, as  this leave was met with satisfaction and welcomed  by Saudi Arabia,  where  the late King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz  had sent congratulations for the formation of the three presidencies, “Fuad Masum, the President, the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, and Salim al-Jubouri, head of the House of Representatives.”

In line with the policy of openness at all levels and strengthen the brotherly relations with Iraq,  King Salman bin Abdul Aziz, sent an official invitation through Thamer Sabhan ambassador of his country  to Haider Abadi, Iraq’s prime minister inviting him to visit Saudi Arabia, but the unexpected thing has happened, where  Haidar al-Abbadi  does not respond  to  the call and visit Saudi Arabia and perhaps the influence of Iran  of the rejection of this visit is behind  the refusal for this invitation.  the Iraqi prime minister tried to appear that he does not reject  the idea of ​​visiting the kingdom and in the way  to get rid of this situation  regarding this call  of visit , he sent a delegation to Saudi Arabia headed by Suleiman al-Jumaili and Faleh al-Fayad, but the kingdom refused to receive the delegation.

the presence of Prince Turki bin Faisal to the Iranian opposition conference in Paris,in  which he chanted with Maryam Rajavi, the Iranian opposition leader, saying he wanted to overthrow the Iranian regime, and this means that the  Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states  are impatient toward the Iranian regime  and policies of intervention and sectarianism in the Arab Mashreq countries  “Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, “as it is the presence of Prince Turki bin Faisal  to the  Conference reflects the Saudi  mood that no longer accept the bargain in an open regional war that changed the balance of conventional forces too much.

The map below clarify the national diversity in Iran.


turkey 1


And   the Rawabet center for Research and Strategic Studies  see at the presence of Prince Turki al-Faisal bin Faisal to the Iranian opposition conference that the battle to “break bone” phase has begun, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states will pursue  with the  Iranian regime the same interventionist approach that is used against it in accordance with the policy of ” reverse engineering  ”  noting that Iran is a state of nationalist   and the sectarian diversity and  all non- Persian nationalities suffer, most notably the Azeri , Kurdish ,  Baluchi and Arab nationalities from the discriminatory policies against national identity  noting that the Iranian regime is carrying out  the assassination of political leaders and to prevent political participation and the prohibition of political parties, and executions, abusive arrests, exclusion and deportation of the repressive methods used by the Iranian government against activists and opponents of the Kurds in Kurdistan -Iran and Arabs in Alohozaz and Baloch in Balochistan and who demand national rights and freedoms denied to them because of the rule of authoritarian regimes which refuses to recognize the national rights and seeks to obliterate their identity and end it by force. In addition of these means, the Iranian government is working to spread of drugs among young people in an attempt to absence of awareness and spread the ignorance and problems between the people of those nationalities until it is completely absent to forget their rights and do not think of  rebellion against injustice imposed on it by the ruling power. But all of this  did not prevent some nationalities the formation of armed groups against the Iranian nation not to mention the organization MEK, which includes all of Iran’s ethnic groups to get rid of the Iranian regime. In recently , active military operations  were begun against the Iranian regime by  Kurdistan Democratic party -Iran branch and  Balushi”Army of Justice” .

On June 15 of this year, the Kurdistan Democratic Party forces in Iran made its first military confrontation against Iranian forces in the area (Henw) in Iranian Kurdistan, and declared the killing and wounding more than (14) elements  of the Iranian elements noting that  the Democratic Party of Kurdistan in Iran was  one of the banned political parties  that its military activities against the Iranian regime had been stopped for more than 20 years, but in may  2015 it announced the installation of its troops in the border areas again and they’ll take advantage of the regional atmosphere  to take advantage of existing discontent  against the Iranian regime because of its actions in the Arab world to activate the party a gain and implementation of painful operations against the Iranian regime. On the  7 July of the current month, the spokesman for the Iranian internal security and police forces, Brigadier Saeed Muntadhar Mahdi announced  that the four Iranian border guards were killed in the province of Baluchistan, south-eastern Iran. According to the agency «Elena» news agency of the Iranian Ministry of Labour  and social affairs,  Muntadhar Mahdi announced that the four Iranian border guards were killed during the violent clashes that took place between Iranian security forces and fighters of the group of Baloch «Army of Justice»  opposition to it.

As the Iranian government gave orders in 7 of July to vacate the current second-largest petrochemical complex in the Middle East in the «Bandar-e Mahshahr» Port overlooking the Arabian Gulf, province of Ahwaz, after the  explosion of the main fuel  gigantic tank .  the «Hawks  movement of Ahwaz» has issued a statement adopted  the bombing, which is considered the biggest of its kind since the time of  8-year war between Iran and Iraq ,and  threatened the Iranian regime  to further qualitative military operations. Through a statement posted on the social networking  sites, and threatened the Iranian regime for  more military operations that target other economic and military sensitive sites in Ahwaz province and said in a statement that «the Persian occupation policies  have exceeded of all the red lines  towards our beloved land and people, and projects sponsored by its security, cultural and economic institutions, did not leave spin  from our pure only  but to be placed  under the plans of  its serious sabotage , cutting off the limbs of home to  be scattered  in to parts, that  some of which  are annexed  into Persian provinces and others developed under the whips of the projects of settlements and change the systemic and programmed demographic composition   , and continued repression of Arab  Ahwazi youth , activist , who lives between the arrest and the pursuit and punishment. » and  The Iranian government has also announced a few days ago  about the burning of Salman Tower in Iran in the Mashad city  north of the capital Tehran.

Add to that the economic factor may help to  blow up the situation in Iran, that the nature of the economic system set up by the mullahs, which is a liberal Mafia   economy, imposing a major shift in the structure of society, resulting in the expansion of the state of poverty among a large segment of the people, and the marginalization of many areas, and enter society in a major crisis, especially as the money available to the state  going  first to the Revolutionary Guards and the mafia around  it .For this,  therefore  the state of the people has become difficult , and if the people kept silent throughout the last decade, even when  the middle class moved in 2009 in support of the reformers, as  the Iranian system  consumed the funds of the Iranian people in the external  wars, in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, and possibly other countries, where it  spent hundreds of billions on interventions in these countries and the wars in which, even though they  looted from Iraq, as a result of the domination of its  “followers”  of power, and this is what appeared that Iraq to loss more than $ 800 billion in the following years of the occupation, and many leaders  were plundering billions of dollars from it, but it was going to Iran. However, the economic situation has not improved, but has grown  difficult and complex. The depth of the crisis is probably  pushes  the Iranian people to complain according to the following :.

First, there is a congestion  are accumulating   among  the impoverished classes, that are wide in Iran, there is no doubt that poverty increases, and unemployment rising, which makes mobility possible, and possibly sets the stage for a revolution.
Secondly, it is no doubt that the worsening of  communal situation impose escalating importance of the national question, where Iran is a state made ​​up of nationalities and parts of nationalities, under the control of groups of Persian nationalism. If there was nationalities who do not think to ask its problems in contrast with the state, some of them, especially what is an extension of the nation, is now raises the question of independence , a goal, as do the Kurds, Arabs and Baluchis.
As such, no longer nationalities are accepting  the status quo, and also the impoverished classes do not seem to accept its miserable position for along time  .

Thus , many issues are put forward at once in Iran .

First, the living conditions of the majority are impoverished, and no longer able to afford and put it down, and if they do not express  about it in   revolution till now, it could do so at any time.

Second, that the issue of nationalities are raised again , some of which tends to the independence, it is no longer fleeting, but became serious.

Third, there ‘s the middle class that it want to get rid of the mullahs ‘ regime, and build a civil state.

This constitutes the entire throes of Iran where its internal position has become ” at stake”, so the  internal moves are rising, as if  the country was going to explode. Kurds have returned to the practice of war against the regime .and  this is what the Arabs are doing in Arabistan. Also,  Baloch is doing . In addition to demonstrations in the Iranian Kurdistan and Arabstan. And maybe tomorrow in Tehran and all other cities.

It is clear that the Iranian interior is  unstable , and Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states are able to employ political, social, economic and security discontent by the non-Persian ethnic groups against the Iranian regime and work to destabilize internal stability as  the system does with them actually . it is no doubt that the   cost of  resorting to this choice is high that may push the  Iranian regime  for  a new era of direct military war between the two sides, since it is not expected that the Iranian regime remain indifferent about this  act and this is demonstrated by the  Iranian threats issued by various levels of the Iranian regime from military personalities  such as  “Iraj Masgdi”  the top adviser to the commander of the Qods Force of the Revolutionary guards Qassem Soleimani and by Iranian lawmakers  and remarks  of Ali Akbar Velayati , the head of diplomacy of velayat-e faqih in Iran , hostile to Saudi Arabia.

And the participation of Prince Turki al-Faisal to  the Iranian opposition conference in Paris , secretary “Expediency Council”  in Iran, Mohsen Rezai vowed  the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia  accusing Riyadh  of supporting the Iranian opposition.

Rezai wrote in his profile on social networking sites such as “Instagram”: “Our message to the House of Saud is that we do not become angry quickly but if we get angry, we will not keep for  the House of Saud  any  impact on the surface the earth,” according to the  Iranian news agency ” Fris” . Rezai added that the  former head of Saudi Arabia’s intelligence service, , Prince Turki al-Faisal, took part in the  last conference of”MKO”   in Paris, accusing al-Faisal that he asked the group “to begin assassinations in Iran.” he added, “the official support of the Saudi  to the hypocrites (MKO) has proved that all operations of assassinations carried out by this group in recent years, but carried out with the support of Saudi Arabia, “the Iranian official pointed out that Saudi officials held meetings several months ago with an Iranian Kurdish opposition organizations such as” democratic “and” Kmulh “and” PJAK “in Arbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, stressing the implementation of several assassinations in Iran’s Kurdistan region until now . and saying, “We consider the Saudi government as being responsible for the assassination carried out by the hypocrites and anti-revolutionary operations and we had collected documents related to it.”

The Iranian regime may close the Strait of Hormuz noting that  the good  navigation is located on the Iranian side, but a step of such closure is not easy,  due to  the global importance of the strait,  as its importance as a  navigation corridor  is  not limited to the Arab Gulf countries and Iraq because Iraq is the only sea outlet for oil exports  to the world markets, and any close to it means the additional complexity of  economic crisis of Iraq , noting that it  is crossing from  this strait  40 percent of the total  oil shipments  transferred by sea in the world,  and any close to it  will affect   negatively  in the global economies,   thus  the Iranian regime is  becoming not only  in the face of the Arab Gulf states, but to the major powers  that are influential in the group and this is what it does not want, especially after the lifting of international sanctions and the desire to return to integrate into the global economy.

It is not in the interests of Iran and the Gulf states any confrontation , but there may be a Western interest in it away from the Strait of Hormuz , noting that  the confrontation between them  may be  in the West’s interest that do not see nothing wrong with any Arab – Iranian  conflict  or Shiite – Sunni,  and Rawabet center for Research and strategic Studies has obtained  information that the Iranian regime is capable of producing a nuclear bomb and the Arabs know this matter and to confront this challenge , will the Saudi Arabia to buy ready nuclear missiles  from  Pakistan?

Hence see the Rawabet Centre for Research and Strategic Studies see that there is not in the interests of countries of the region any change may occur to the geography because if it happened , no country in the region  will be in  safe  from it, meaning that it is not in the interest of Arab States the division of Iran because it will be reflected negatively on them .and   it is not  in the interests of Iran, tampering with the stability of those countries for the same meaning .It has become the achievement of Arab-Iranian dialogue, and  Arabic Iranian agreement  preceding  the American – Russian  consensus is the main task. Here, horse stall, and diagnose the disease before the drug. And Iran, which has been able to reach an agreement with the ‘Great Satan’ on issues deemed days as  sovereign, they can deal with the Arab states; and Saudi Arabia, who drafted the Arab peace initiative in 2002, which can provide a common vision to live with Iran in the region on  conditions.

In summary :  to avoid  the policy of the  brink of abyss in the region ,  the Iranian regime  has to review its policies in the Arab Mashreq based on sectarian lines and destabilize the Arab countries through its militias in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and  terrorist cells deployed in the Arabian Gulf states, and in return for  the Arab Gulf states avoiding to employ paper  of nationalities in  Iran  that it has its future negative impact on the cohesion of the Iranian nation, the Iranian regime to review its aggressive and arrogant policies  taking  from the principle of “exporting the revolution”  as the permanent  slogan towards the Arab countries in the regional environment,  noting that the  presence of Prince Turki al-Faisal to  the Iranian opposition conference in Paris is only a  clear message to the Iranian regime that the silence policy and lack of direct confrontation by the Arab Gulf states , led by Saudi Arabia, to face the  Iran’s policy towards the Arabian Gulf in particular and the Levant in general is  no longer going to work but on the contrary  it has exacerbated the matters to the worse.


Rawabet Research and Strategic Studies Center

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