- in Strategy Research


In the twenty – second of this month , Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al -Abadi declared starting of what he called the battle to liberate Fallujah from the hands of state regulation in Iraq and the Levant “Daash” , Haider al – Abadi said that about 33 thousand people from the Iraqi forces , ” the army, Iraqi police, and a counter – terrorism “and thousands of Sunni tribal fighters and militants of the popular crowd will take part in the operation. In addition to the international coalition forces and an Iranianforces, according to the Iraqi military and tribal sources said that some 60 Iranian fighters equipped with modern weapons arrived to the outskirts of Fallujah in the first day of the battle. In this context , we highlight on the reasons that prompted Iraqi Prime Minister to start of the battle of Fallujah in this time, and the implications of the emergence of the Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani again in the Iraqi scene, and its effects and goals of Iran from the battle and its consequences .
The timing of the battle of Fallujah has been occurred in the critical political and security conditions. bombings by al state in Iraq and the Levant “Daash,” in the Iraqi capital Baghdad this month, and led to numerous deaths and injuries have proven that the military and security forces are unable to protect it Just like as demonstrators stormed the Green Zone that it has proved another deficit of it, in addition to deficit of the political forces to get out of the state of deadlock, which was manifested in the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi ‘ s failure to pass his reforms and his formation away from quotas. In the escalating conflict between Shiite forces, and within the ranks of «Dawa Party», the largest of these powers. These negative developments constituted irrefutable confirmation of the plunge of the existing system of government on sectarian and ethnic quotas since 2003. Attempts to get out of this system has collided with stubbornness of the political and partisan class that Iraqis are no longer have ability to overcome or jump over its interests in any real reform process as demanded by the protesters. Not to mention the sectarian rift that is deepened day by day. And the growing influence of Iran. And the return of the United States under the banner of the fight against «Daash» and the leadership of the international coalition.

The outbreak of the demonstrations in the capital and southern provinces of expression of public outcry is no longer confined to the Sunni provinces, which had its share after the uprisings of 2013 and Muqtada al-Sadr found it an opportunity, and pushed his current to the arms of the demonstrators. Which exacerbated the conflict within the Shiite ranks, and threatened its bond and … and the future of its militias and mobilization». Thus it was necessary to speed up the battle of Fallujah. It is an opportunity for Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi restore the lead, and remove Iraqis from Tahrir Square and the Green Zone. And he covers his inability to pass the government of technocrats which is difficult to be formed. And an opportunity to collect the body parts of the Council of Iraqi parliament. And it is Suitable for Shiite forces to regroup its ranks behind «the popular crowd», and the suspension of their differences in the face of a decisive battle with terrorism. And confirm its presence once again after an absence from the battle to liberate Al -Ramadi ans Al-Rutba . so its absence about this war , will strengthen the place of the regular forces . Which is sought by the United States and this does not please Iran, which was in hurry to endorse the Gen. Qassem Soleimani, commander of the «Qods» at the forefront of the picture with the leaders of «crowd», former Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who did not spare any effort to insult the people of Falluja as if they were part of the organization of the state in Iraq and the Levant “Daash” and that is no way to distinguish between them .

The appearance of Qassem Soleimani on the outskirts of the city of Fallujah seems to summoned a swift response from Baghdad to prevent the undermining of national battle against Daash across sow sedition between the army and the popular crowd and Anbar tribes which are all participating in the battle. Thus , the Iraqi prime minister and parliament speaker Salim al-Jubouri, the head of the Sunni Endowment Abdul Latif Alhmam and Planning Minister Salman Jumaili visited headquarters of the Fallujah operations to personally supervise on the progress of the operations of the liberation of the city . Haider al-Abadi after the arrival of the headquarters, as the commander of the armed forces, held a meeting with security and military leaders who are leading the process of liberation of the city from the hands of “Daash.” In an attempt to contain the negative effects of the visit Qassem Soleimani and its impact on the unity of his soldiers and their solidarity by its sectarian hints, Haider al-Abadi said that “some people wanted to hinder our movement towards the liberation of Fallujah, but they failed to achieve their goal.” He continued: “Some are trying to save” Daash “at the last minute.” He continued: “The Iraqi nationality was gathered in this national effort to liberate Fallujah, which was attended by army troops and federal police and local anti-terrorism and the popular and tribal crowd and and all the citizens, stressing that the liberation of Fallujah people and protection them from the killings, displacement and torture they met at the hands of gangs Daash is the goal of operations to liberate Fallujah and our heroic forces in all its different forms are fighting terrorists and protecting the citizens. ”

This visit did not dispel fears of the Sunnis from the appearance of Qasem Soleimani on the theater of the operations of battle of Fallujah whereas Sunni political figures in Iraq denounced his appearance. three deputies in parliament from Anbar province said that the visit of the commander of the Qods Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard could ignite the sectarian tensions and cast doubt on the assurances of Baghdad that the attack is a process that lead Iraq to defeat al Daash and not to settle scores with the Sunnis .Because the deep sectarian divide is the most prominent title in Iraq after 2003, Deputy Chief of the popular crowd Abu Mahdi Mohandes stressed that the presence of the commander of the Qods Force of the Revolutionary Islamic Guards Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Iraq was at the request of the government, as expressed confidence in the ability of Iraqis to defeat “Daash” alone, he denied the existence of any “political project” with the popular crowd. And he added in an interview on “unexpected show ” which aired on Sumerian channel: “The Iranian advisers are present with us since the beginning of the battle and on the forefront the dear brother Qassem Soleimani,” noting that the latter “came at the request of the Iraqi government and in agreement with the general commander of the armed forces.”

The existence of Qassem Soleimani in Iraq these days is not accidental nor hide its meanings, and goals of the Iranian Major General who seeks to achieve in the battle of Fallujah, while the Iraqi government struggling to develop a consensus of Iraqis in the face of the organization Daash to eliminate it, the government sought to assert the military authority in the field, and engineered many of the decisions that make the phenomenon of the popular crowd, as an element moves under the government and military umbrella, but Soleimani another view, expressed by taking pictures of himself on the outskirts of Fallujah and spread it to be seen by those who is interested to it , and after this move, he said explicitly, “the popular crowd for us.” Qassem Soleimani does not speak of a personal whim , it is an Iranian policy, and therefore knows that a victory for the Iraqi army and Iraqis in Fallujah in isolation from his presence, even if it was formal, it will push the Iraqi political path towards further of providence of positive elements for a political settlement, any settlement that is based on fixing the state authority and the unity of Iraq demographic, geographic , and this is not suitable with Qassem Soleimani accounts on what the facts show. Thus to weaken Daash or eliminate it is not necessarily reveal the enormity of Iranian interference in Iraq, and Qassem Soleimani knows that the survival of this terrorist organization, would make the Iranian interference in Iraq is required, and even supporting the Iraqis in the face of terrorism.

Within the atmosphere of the battle of Fallujah is currently raging, aleading figure in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Brigadier General Iraj Masgidi talked , who serves as the top adviser to the commander of the Iranian Quds Corps Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the battle , about the entry of Iran in full force. He said that ” the entry of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard with its officers in the battle of Fallujah was to remain Iran a center of shi-ism in the world, as we consider this participation is in defense of Iran and its borders,” . The Soleimani adviser’s talk was made during the commemoration of ceremony of the dead of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in the Iranian city roudehen, according to the website “Basij News” of the Revolutionary Guards, where he explained the reasons that prompted the Iranian Quds Corps forces to participate in the battle of Fallujah.
Masgidi said at the beginning of his speech that ” the currents takfiri are seeking to occupy Iraq and Syria to reach out to Iran; Shiism center in the world. ”

The adviser of Soleimani added : “Takfiri groups , all intellectual backgrounds and although of its differences , it is consistent in its hostility to Shiites, the Two Holy Mosques for the Shiites in Iraq (Shiite shrines), and do not hesitate even for the killing of Shiites children, because they believed that those children will fight against it and resist it while they are growing up.” He denied , a senior commander of the Revolutionary Guards, that the battle of Fallujah is to save its people , as announced in the Iraqi media, saying: “the defense of the Two Holy Mosques in Iraq (shrines of Hussein and Ali ibn Abi Talib in Karbala and Najaf) from the basics of the doctrines of the Shiites, and when send Revolutionary Guard troops to Iraq and Syria, it is for the defense of the Iranian border, also “. concerning wars waged by Iran in the Arab countries, adviser Soleimani said,” one of the biggest strategic mistakes to fight the enemy within the geographical limits, and we must convey our battles with the Arab countries from Iran to within the borders of enemy territory, destroying its full strength until the threats do not reach inside the borders of Iran. ” And Masgidi vowed the city of Mosul after the completion of Fallujah, said: “Our forces made big progress in order to restore the city of Fallujah, despite the support of Gulf and European countries for takfiri groups there, and after the completion of falujah , it was remained only the city of Mosul under the control of the organization Daash who is trying to attract young people of Sunnee from the city to its ranks “. Soleimani consultant attacked the USA and accused it of supporting” terrorists “against the Shiites, and it is behind the strife of war between Shiites and Sunnis because they are hostile to all the Muslims.

It Iraji Masjidi statements and the emergence of Soleimani again over Iraqi territory , we can determine the goals of this emerging , first : the consecration of the dominance of Tehran, not only on the southern regions and the Middle Euphrates to Iraq but also to subjugate the Sunnis of Arabs and their places in order that they do not even have a political influential role in Iraq and its policy in the future. These comments of Masjidi confirm the sectarian dimension in the participation of Tehran to the battle of Fallujah and its tools such as the popular crowd , also raises doubts about the mass killings can be committed against the population of the city described by Iranian media as a hotbed of terrorism and incubator of the extremist groups, and of course in the context of justification for sectarian crimes that may be committed against the people of Fallujah under the pretext of fighting “Daash” and terrorists there. In light of this, the international coalition forces led by US made a point of refusing the entry of the « popular crowd» to the city after its liberation. It announced that it does not provide cover to the militias. Haider al-Abadi was keen to it too, because he brought with him-as we already pointed – to a room of operations of Fallujah the Iraqi Parliament Speaker Salim al-Jubouri, the head of the Sunni Endowment Abdul Latif Alhmam and others to confirm the «Iraqi National » that was gathered in the battle, as he said, and the removal of any sectarian formula. The commander of the «Badr» Hadi al-Amiri, said the presence of the Prime Minister, and the delegation of sheikhs of Anbar that «crowd» will leave the army to storm the city and will participate only in the process to encircle the city . And will not enter unless the failure of the regular forces attack. But this did not dispel concerns. There are forces insist on accusing people of the city that they are «Daaish», and they want to fight the battle as a confrontation with the Sunnis in the city where they constitute the great majority. The organization «State» rushed on the eve of battle to pour more fire to deepen the sectarian conflict. Noting that the organization Launched a series of terrorist operations in Baghdad (11 and 17 May ) and Shiite neighborhoods, leaving hundreds of victims among the dead and wounded.

The neutralization of the popular crowd from entering Fallujah constiute a challenge to the Government of Abadi and political forces of all, as well as the United States. The city is Sunni. The participant tribal crowd in the campaign does not compare its numerous to the Shiite militias that form the greatest field force. In the memory of the Iraqis the bitter experiences after the liberations of districts from «Daash» by militias about a year ago. Tikrit has its share , after retaking it, of a burning homes , displacement and looting. Nor effective guarantees of non-repetition of this scenario in Fallujah. American circles has been warned that the political atmosphere surrounding the fight under the frantic Sunni – Shiite conflict to deepen the political and sectarian divisions that impossible after it Patching the cracks in the unity of Iraq. And then Washington would not be immune to withstand the repercussions of what might happen, to be added to its deadly failures and mistakes record in Mesopotamia . Or immune from the wrath of Arab regional powers no longer trust very much to the President Barack Obama administration . So it remains the heart of the liberation of the city is to prepare the force that will fill the void that will succeed it after liberation.

The second reason that Iran does not want a repeat the liberation form of the cities of Ramadi and Rutba , which was considered a success of the Iraqi army which was united nationally and re-trained and armed by the United States away from the patronage of Iran noting that the strength of the Iraqi national army composed of all sects to weaken its influence and referring to the possibility of dispensing with the future of its military services It is what it fears Iran strongly. The third reason lies in no hurry of Iran to the decisiveness against Daash in Iraq, because it will reflect a quick collapse for Iran in Syria against the Free Syrian Army factions that it will be free to fight against Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which will see himself losing to all elements of continuity after presenting himself to the world that he is the first warrior of terrorism .

In fact, it can be seen through the battle of Fallujah that “Daash” in Iraq, is an Iranian need, just like that, “Daash” in Syria is a need for the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Iran has used “Daash” to high extent in its expansion phase in Iraq, including the control of Mosul in circumstances that at least can be described as it is mysterious circumstances. I did this to push in the direction of the consolidation of the rift of the sectarian Shiite-Sunni. And Bashar Al-Assad took advantage of extension of “Daash” in Syria to portray the war waged by him with the Iranian and Russian support on the Syrian people as a “war on terror”.

It seems “Daash” in Iraq is an Iranian need more than ever these days. The “Daash” was more than necessary to portray the provinces where the majority are Sunni as “dens of terrorism and terrorists.” Under the slogan of clearing of these provinces from “Daash” , the “popular crowd performed a series of sectarian cleansing operations poured in the interest of Iran seeking to weaken Iraq, along with Syria at the same time. It is no secret that the nature of Baghdad has been changed. The city of Baghdad has been no difference between a Sunni and a Shiite and Christian. Now it becomes a completely different city …

Giving the religious dimension and Iranian entry to the battle to eliminate Daash, revealing the Iranian role in Iraq, the role that increases the consolidation of sectarian identities First, it has been relatively successful, but this option, which did not bother the US administration and its policy in Iraq, but from the perspective of the size of entry Iran, not from the prospective of its presence , the US president acknowledged on more than one occasion, and uttered explicitly to the leaders of the Gulf states that they have to familiarize with the idea of ​​Iran’s influence in the Arab region. Qassem Soleimani footprint in Fallujah will not be easily erased, despite attempts by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi response to this attendance , and Suleimani fired a life bullet to Daash and put in practice the Sunni component in Fallujah between two choices, that they either to choose him or to choose Daash.

A big question is to remain which remains hovering, and what is after Fallujah? And how these areas will be managed? And where do we put it on the map of the new Iraqi politics? And it has always been the fear Is Iraq will remain united? It is a question of Graham Fuller, who is close to the CIA (CIA, ie state) and he is already suggested in the framework of an extensive report for warded to the institution (Rand – Rand), and after the US-led war on Iraq in 1991, after the imposition of the blockade and work to break up the state from within, the US-led invasion has occurred to establish distorted political process on a sectarian and ethnic basis, have led to conflicts and frantic climates , thus it was appeared Joe Biden a project that has divided Iraq into three federations and set limits and identities closer to the passports among them, such as to the “states” on the verge of separation nearly , even if Iraq remains nominally united, and we are talking today, especially after Daash for the project in the framework of the formation . who wins in Fallujah, then? If Daash is defeated and the division won, Daash will be the victorious as well, and if Daash is defeated and sectarianism won , then Daash will be the victorious, and if Daash is defeated , the ethnic differentiation , and tails of war on Daash in Diyala and Kirkuk and the belt of Baghdad and Mosul won , then Daash is the victorious. If Daash is defeated and the case of Iraq is continued for what it is; half-American and half to the Iranians, Daash and his destructive ,Takfiri and divisive project will be the victor, and that is the bitter cup, which is intended for the Iraqi people to drink and devote what exists, making the things occurred , “reality”!

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