With the sudden and striking win of the Republican candidate coming from the business and trade sector Donald Trump, the United States of America and the world with it enter a stage of predictions and expectations about the future of the internal policy of the President-elect, as well as foreign policy . these predictions seek to understand whether the United States will be led in its policies to the arguments of Trump during the election campaign or the institutionalism will overcome , so that it appears that the extent of global concern toward Trump has been exaggerated?
During the election period, Trump called for the construction of a separation wall on the US border with Mexico, to prevent the arrival of any immigrant to his country , the United States, and he described the Latinos that they are Killers and Rapists saying (But you have People coming in and I’m not just saying Mexicans , I’m talking about people that are from all over that are killers and rapists and they ‘re coming into this country) . And despite the severe rejection to the president of North Korea by the whole world, but he won the admiration of the 45th US President , saying: “how many young guys-he was like 26 or 25 when his father died- take over these tough generals and all of a sudden , you know , it’s pretty amazing when you think of it. How does he do that ? ” , and expressed his desire to meet with him and talk to him on the cessation of the nuclear program .
Trump believes that global warming is nothing more than “weather”, and described climate change as a hoax, and believes that environmental restrictions on the companies making them less competitive in the global market(the concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non- competitive). He said that if he won the White House, he would impose policies include the monitoring of mosques, and establish a database of Muslims living in the United States, and he declared to bring back waterboarding in the American war with the terrorism and approve other tougher interrogation techniques in ”.
He called for the imposition of surveillance programs on the entry of Syrian refugees to America and subject to surveillance programs, describing President Obama as “crazy” to let refugees to enter the country in general and Syrians in particular. Trump said in one of his TV talks : “I think that Islam hates us, and that there is incredible hatred toward us, so we have to be careful and do not allow for people carrying such hatred to enter our country,” then he was retracted about those remarks after a strong attack on him, saying: “I love Muslims and I think they are great, I have many Muslim friends, and my government can include Muslims . The winner of the rule chair in the United States said that he will make the Arab Gulf states pay money in exchange for American protection to them.
He Promised for mass deportation of some 11 million of illegal immigrants living in the United States, if he would win, and it is also characterized by humanity at the same time, saying the reforms in the field of migration will terminate access to citizenship by virtue of birth. And in order to put an end to mass killings by shooting , Trump said that the United States should invest in the treatment of mental illness, adding: “it is not the government’s right to dictate to people the types of good firearms, and allows for the honest to possess weapons,” expressing his intention that he would oppose the expansion of investigating the backgrounds of people who want to own a gun. He wrote a controversial tweet in which he says that African-Americans are killing blacks and whites, at rates far higher than the rates of killing whites or blacks police officers .
In a talk with the “CNN”, Trump said that the world would be better if Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi are still in power, as he believes that the situation in both Libya and Iraq is much worse, than it was under the rule of the ruling dictators, and that Saddam Hussein has done the best to face the terrorists .And in his latest book, “America’s sick,” Trump said: “I’m a really nice guy, believe me, I feel proud to be a nice guy, but I am eager and determined that our country is a great country again.” Trump made a silly proposal to resolve the Palestinian issue, where he called for the Palestinians to abandon their land to the state of Israel, in reciprocal to giving them the US island of Puerto Rico, which has an area of thousand square miles in compensation for them. He announced that he will re-open negotiations about the Iranian nuclear program, and he believed that the agreement gave Iran something does not worth during his election campaign, Trump described the nuclear deal as “catastrophic”, stressing that its cancellation would be released in his priorities.
In the context of these statements issued by Trump both in during the presidential election period or after , we wonder: Are these statements are his brainchild , a product of the mind of Trump or is there an advisory group assisted in the maturation, if it was really his brainchild , he would be the first in the history of the presidents of the United States , a president is very similar to the authoritarians and totalitarians presidents in the international community, who are behaving too much according to their whims and not according to pre-thought out plans. The question in this to be suggested in this context , Does the ruling of Trump would be a threat to the stability of the Middle East?
In the forty-fifth President Donald Trump’s inauguration, he gave a speech, stressing first and foremost that his domestic and foreign policies will be based on a fundamental principle which is that «America’s only first» which means that at all political, economic and military levels, and other levels. This is self-evident, and all the old and new leader who leads a nation or a state or people should confirm and announce it and to seek to it and, noting that any interest can not be put prior to the interest of the state, and this is the legitimate right for the new US president, and no one of his internal or external opponents can to outbid to him , though not without command from the wide exaggerated media . President Trump started his decisions quickly with a purpose to eliminate the legacy of his predecessor, Barack Obama, especially what was shown by Obama of the isolation and withdrawal which have led to a weakening of America’s standing around the world to an unprecedented extent.
The period of Obama’s presidency has seen the spread of chaos in the region, and has doubled the number of terrorist organizations , its men and their activities in the world. No one wants him to an American military intervention, since the failure of military intervention in Iraq in the era of George W. Bush , but Obama made a mistake when he prevented his allies to sell arms to the Syrian opposition so as not to anger Iran, and made a mistake in underestimating the terrorist groups until it filled the world with terror . After these terrible in the eight years of the Obama presidency failures , there who do not think that anyone will worry about any policy adopted by the new American president, even though, the new American president, Donald Trump decided to build walls with his neighbors, and expels ten million residing illegally in the country, and refrain from extending protection to Europe and South-East Asia and its allies in the Middle East, we will not worry too much because the US policy under President Barack Obama was so bad, what makes Trump accepted whatever did or did not do in our region. Even if Trump agrees with Iran,and supported the survival of the Assad regime in Syria, and refrained to lend a helping hand to millions of refugees and the displaced , and kept silent on the Russian expansion, all these things were taken place in the era of Obama. Because it can not be worse than it was and what is today. No one in this region is expected from President Trump to achieve political or military achievements, and would be a significant achievement if the administration decided to stop Obama’s policy that encouraged Iran to expand wars circles, which reached the level of silence on the arrest of US Navy soldiers in the Gulf Arab by the Iranian Navy and we wonder if this scene Is repeated , will Trump take the same stance that is taken by Obama? Which his policies contributed to the expansion of terrorist organizations.
Although the process of election of the president of the Trump took sarcastic or serious situations, the importance of the event (election of the President of the greatest country in the world) is also required to go far in the analysis of a political structure that produced this option . Analysis led some to say that the event represents one of the disadvantages of democracy with its contemporary structure . this concept means, among what it means, that democracy may produce, after a complicated and overlapping political, economic and media facts, a candidate does not have the necessary qualifications for the job, or not necessarily mean that the winner is the most worthy, and in the contemporary history there are blatant examples confirm that democracy as with what has reached of its negative effects and side effects similar to certain medications, that are dealing with diseases and have produced others.
Donald Trump, who was sworn on the last January , 20, and delivered a populist right-wing racist speech reconciled with his status and his affiliation and composition, sparking resentment of the world in some chapters, he will not change to become a leftist or a jurist or dreamer of the justice, but he also will not reach to translate his odd rhetorical to real actions. But that does not negate the fact that Trump stage will vary inevitably from the era of his predecessor, Barack Obama, internally or externally, but the difference will not be a turning point and will not represent a rupture, and this is also of the “pros” of democracy, where the successor can not “turn” back to the predecessor but even if he disagreed with him , because the state protects its values , principles , slogans and its Constitution.
The bottom line was the countries of the world and its peoples, especially in the Middle East were very optimistic to the era of Democratic President Barack Obama, and the best evidence of that optimism were his two speeches that he delivered , the first in the National Assembly, Turkish “parliament” in April / May 2009, and the second at Cairo University in June of the same year, which were full of human values and coexistence, but after eight years of his reign , those peoples were disappointed as a result of his disappointing positions and policies , and this frustration may continue with the political statements of Trump or fade with his political action that the first is something and the second is something else entirely.
Unit of International Studies
Translated by : Mudhaffar al-Kusairi
Rawabet Research and Strategic Studies Center