The attendance of an important personality like the Prince Turki al-Faisal to the Conference of the Iranian opposition is a rare event, but it reflects a qualitative change in the Gulf strategy toward Iran, and unusual political support shown in public that has not happened before ; it is an issue imposed by the nature of the variables in the region and the western silence on the persistence of the Iranian encroachment, which has become an existential threat to the Middle East .The question in this context, is started a policy of “reverse engineering” of the Gulf about the Iranian regime, and what the implications of such a policy on the both sides of the Arab Gulf and Iran?
It was not come to the the mind of political decision-maker in Iran, that the date of the ninth of April 2003, is the date of receiving the Grand Prize from former US President George W. Bush’s administration, and we mean this award the occupation of the United States to Iraq. As this event marked the beginning of extended Iranian influence in Iraq contrast to the complete absence of the Arab role in it. This influence was demonstrated in the era of the rule of former Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki “2006/2014”, where his domestic and foreign policies were identified with the policies of the Iranian regime in the Arab region and the evidence for this identification is his support and pro-regime of Bashar al-Assad, the system as long as Nuri Maliki has complained of it as a main source of terrorism in Iraq !! But this attitude is completely changed after the Syrian people’s revolution against Bashar al-Assad and the change came at the behest of the Iranian regime. As Iraq has been turned in the era of Nuri al-Maliki the leading financial supporter of both the Iranian regime in the face of the international embargo that was imposed on it, and financial supportive also to Bashar al-Assad against his own people revolution.
As a result of the positive relationship with Iran and Syria-after the revolution – it was the tension of the relationship with Saudi Arabia noting that merely to mention the name of Nuri al-Maliki in the royal palace of the late King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz is not acceptable by the late king and this signal to his disturbance from al-Malki policies congruent with the Iranian regime. The emergence of the organization Daash terrorist and its control on the Iraqi scene in June 2014, which may be described by the “soft” on the Nineveh province, followed by the Iraqi provinces with a Sunni character led to accelerate the departure of Nuri al-Maliki from the Presidency of the executive power, as this leave was met with satisfaction and welcomed by Saudi Arabia, where the late King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz had sent congratulations for the formation of the three presidencies, “Fuad Masum, the President, the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, and Salim al-Jubouri, head of the House of Representatives.”
In line with the policy of openness at all levels and strengthen the brotherly relations with Iraq, King Salman bin Abdul Aziz, sent an official invitation through Thamer Sabhan ambassador of his country to Haider Abadi, Iraq’s prime minister inviting him to visit Saudi Arabia, but the unexpected thing has happened, where Haidar al-Abbadi does not respond to the call and visit Saudi Arabia and perhaps the influence of Iran of the rejection of this visit is behind the refusal for this invitation. the Iraqi prime minister tried to appear that he does not reject the idea of visiting the kingdom and in the way to get rid of this situation regarding this call of visit , he sent a delegation to Saudi Arabia headed by Suleiman al-Jumaili and Faleh al-Fayad, but the kingdom refused to receive the delegation.
the presence of Prince Turki bin Faisal to the Iranian opposition conference in Paris,in which he chanted with Maryam Rajavi, the Iranian opposition leader, saying he wanted to overthrow the Iranian regime, and this means that the Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are impatient toward the Iranian regime and policies of intervention and sectarianism in the Arab Mashreq countries “Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, “as it is the presence of Prince Turki bin Faisal to the Conference reflects the Saudi mood that no longer accept the bargain in an open regional war that changed the balance of conventional forces too much.
The map below clarify the national diversity in Iran.
And the Rawabet center for Research and Strategic Studies see at the presence of Prince Turki al-Faisal bin Faisal to the Iranian opposition conference that the battle to “break bone” phase has begun, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states will pursue with the Iranian regime the same interventionist approach that is used against it in accordance with the policy of ” reverse engineering ” noting that Iran is a state of nationalist and the sectarian diversity and all non- Persian nationalities suffer, most notably the Azeri , Kurdish , Baluchi and Arab nationalities from the discriminatory policies against national identity noting that the Iranian regime is carrying out the assassination of political leaders and to prevent political participation and the prohibition of political parties, and executions, abusive arrests, exclusion and deportation of the repressive methods used by the Iranian government against activists and opponents of the Kurds in Kurdistan -Iran and Arabs in Alohozaz and Baloch in Balochistan and who demand national rights and freedoms denied to them because of the rule of authoritarian regimes which refuses to recognize the national rights and seeks to obliterate their identity and end it by force. In addition of these means, the Iranian government is working to spread of drugs among young people in an attempt to absence of awareness and spread the ignorance and problems between the people of those nationalities until it is completely absent to forget their rights and do not think of rebellion against injustice imposed on it by the ruling power. But all of this did not prevent some nationalities the formation of armed groups against the Iranian nation not to mention the organization MEK, which includes all of Iran’s ethnic groups to get rid of the Iranian regime. In recently , active military operations were begun against the Iranian regime by Kurdistan Democratic party -Iran branch and Balushi”Army of Justice” .
On June 15 of this year, the Kurdistan Democratic Party forces in Iran made its first military confrontation against Iranian forces in the area (Henw) in Iranian Kurdistan, and declared the killing and wounding more than (14) elements of the Iranian elements noting that the Democratic Party of Kurdistan in Iran was one of the banned political parties that its military activities against the Iranian regime had been stopped for more than 20 years, but in may 2015 it announced the installation of its troops in the border areas again and they’ll take advantage of the regional atmosphere to take advantage of existing discontent against the Iranian regime because of its actions in the Arab world to activate the party a gain and implementation of painful operations against the Iranian regime. On the 7 July of the current month, the spokesman for the Iranian internal security and police forces, Brigadier Saeed Muntadhar Mahdi announced that the four Iranian border guards were killed in the province of Baluchistan, south-eastern Iran. According to the agency «Elena» news agency of the Iranian Ministry of Labour and social affairs, Muntadhar Mahdi announced that the four Iranian border guards were killed during the violent clashes that took place between Iranian security forces and fighters of the group of Baloch «Army of Justice» opposition to it.
As the Iranian government gave orders in 7 of July to vacate the current second-largest petrochemical complex in the Middle East in the «Bandar-e Mahshahr» Port overlooking the Arabian Gulf, province of Ahwaz, after the explosion of the main fuel gigantic tank . the «Hawks movement of Ahwaz» has issued a statement adopted the bombing, which is considered the biggest of its kind since the time of 8-year war between Iran and Iraq ,and threatened the Iranian regime to further qualitative military operations. Through a statement posted on the social networking sites, and threatened the Iranian regime for more military operations that target other economic and military sensitive sites in Ahwaz province and said in a statement that «the Persian occupation policies have exceeded of all the red lines towards our beloved land and people, and projects sponsored by its security, cultural and economic institutions, did not leave spin from our pure only but to be placed under the plans of its serious sabotage , cutting off the limbs of home to be scattered in to parts, that some of which are annexed into Persian provinces and others developed under the whips of the projects of settlements and change the systemic and programmed demographic composition , and continued repression of Arab Ahwazi youth , activist , who lives between the arrest and the pursuit and punishment. » and The Iranian government has also announced a few days ago about the burning of Salman Tower in Iran in the Mashad city north of the capital Tehran.
Add to that the economic factor may help to blow up the situation in Iran, that the nature of the economic system set up by the mullahs, which is a liberal Mafia economy, imposing a major shift in the structure of society, resulting in the expansion of the state of poverty among a large segment of the people, and the marginalization of many areas, and enter society in a major crisis, especially as the money available to the state going first to the Revolutionary Guards and the mafia around it .For this, therefore the state of the people has become difficult , and if the people kept silent throughout the last decade, even when the middle class moved in 2009 in support of the reformers, as the Iranian system consumed the funds of the Iranian people in the external wars, in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, and possibly other countries, where it spent hundreds of billions on interventions in these countries and the wars in which, even though they looted from Iraq, as a result of the domination of its “followers” of power, and this is what appeared that Iraq to loss more than $ 800 billion in the following years of the occupation, and many leaders were plundering billions of dollars from it, but it was going to Iran. However, the economic situation has not improved, but has grown difficult and complex. The depth of the crisis is probably pushes the Iranian people to complain according to the following :.
First, there is a congestion are accumulating among the impoverished classes, that are wide in Iran, there is no doubt that poverty increases, and unemployment rising, which makes mobility possible, and possibly sets the stage for a revolution.
Secondly, it is no doubt that the worsening of communal situation impose escalating importance of the national question, where Iran is a state made up of nationalities and parts of nationalities, under the control of groups of Persian nationalism. If there was nationalities who do not think to ask its problems in contrast with the state, some of them, especially what is an extension of the nation, is now raises the question of independence , a goal, as do the Kurds, Arabs and Baluchis.
As such, no longer nationalities are accepting the status quo, and also the impoverished classes do not seem to accept its miserable position for along time .
Thus , many issues are put forward at once in Iran .
First, the living conditions of the majority are impoverished, and no longer able to afford and put it down, and if they do not express about it in revolution till now, it could do so at any time.
Second, that the issue of nationalities are raised again , some of which tends to the independence, it is no longer fleeting, but became serious.
Third, there ‘s the middle class that it want to get rid of the mullahs ‘ regime, and build a civil state.
This constitutes the entire throes of Iran where its internal position has become ” at stake”, so the internal moves are rising, as if the country was going to explode. Kurds have returned to the practice of war against the regime .and this is what the Arabs are doing in Arabistan. Also, Baloch is doing . In addition to demonstrations in the Iranian Kurdistan and Arabstan. And maybe tomorrow in Tehran and all other cities.
It is clear that the Iranian interior is unstable , and Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states are able to employ political, social, economic and security discontent by the non-Persian ethnic groups against the Iranian regime and work to destabilize internal stability as the system does with them actually . it is no doubt that the cost of resorting to this choice is high that may push the Iranian regime for a new era of direct military war between the two sides, since it is not expected that the Iranian regime remain indifferent about this act and this is demonstrated by the Iranian threats issued by various levels of the Iranian regime from military personalities such as “Iraj Masgdi” the top adviser to the commander of the Qods Force of the Revolutionary guards Qassem Soleimani and by Iranian lawmakers and remarks of Ali Akbar Velayati , the head of diplomacy of velayat-e faqih in Iran , hostile to Saudi Arabia.
And the participation of Prince Turki al-Faisal to the Iranian opposition conference in Paris , secretary “Expediency Council” in Iran, Mohsen Rezai vowed the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia accusing Riyadh of supporting the Iranian opposition.
Rezai wrote in his profile on social networking sites such as “Instagram”: “Our message to the House of Saud is that we do not become angry quickly but if we get angry, we will not keep for the House of Saud any impact on the surface the earth,” according to the Iranian news agency ” Fris” . Rezai added that the former head of Saudi Arabia’s intelligence service, , Prince Turki al-Faisal, took part in the last conference of”MKO” in Paris, accusing al-Faisal that he asked the group “to begin assassinations in Iran.” he added, “the official support of the Saudi to the hypocrites (MKO) has proved that all operations of assassinations carried out by this group in recent years, but carried out with the support of Saudi Arabia, “the Iranian official pointed out that Saudi officials held meetings several months ago with an Iranian Kurdish opposition organizations such as” democratic “and” Kmulh “and” PJAK “in Arbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, stressing the implementation of several assassinations in Iran’s Kurdistan region until now . and saying, “We consider the Saudi government as being responsible for the assassination carried out by the hypocrites and anti-revolutionary operations and we had collected documents related to it.”
The Iranian regime may close the Strait of Hormuz noting that the good navigation is located on the Iranian side, but a step of such closure is not easy, due to the global importance of the strait, as its importance as a navigation corridor is not limited to the Arab Gulf countries and Iraq because Iraq is the only sea outlet for oil exports to the world markets, and any close to it means the additional complexity of economic crisis of Iraq , noting that it is crossing from this strait 40 percent of the total oil shipments transferred by sea in the world, and any close to it will affect negatively in the global economies, thus the Iranian regime is becoming not only in the face of the Arab Gulf states, but to the major powers that are influential in the group and this is what it does not want, especially after the lifting of international sanctions and the desire to return to integrate into the global economy.
It is not in the interests of Iran and the Gulf states any confrontation , but there may be a Western interest in it away from the Strait of Hormuz , noting that the confrontation between them may be in the West’s interest that do not see nothing wrong with any Arab – Iranian conflict or Shiite – Sunni, and Rawabet center for Research and strategic Studies has obtained information that the Iranian regime is capable of producing a nuclear bomb and the Arabs know this matter and to confront this challenge , will the Saudi Arabia to buy ready nuclear missiles from Pakistan?
Hence see the Rawabet Centre for Research and Strategic Studies see that there is not in the interests of countries of the region any change may occur to the geography because if it happened , no country in the region will be in safe from it, meaning that it is not in the interest of Arab States the division of Iran because it will be reflected negatively on them .and it is not in the interests of Iran, tampering with the stability of those countries for the same meaning .It has become the achievement of Arab-Iranian dialogue, and Arabic Iranian agreement preceding the American – Russian consensus is the main task. Here, horse stall, and diagnose the disease before the drug. And Iran, which has been able to reach an agreement with the ‘Great Satan’ on issues deemed days as sovereign, they can deal with the Arab states; and Saudi Arabia, who drafted the Arab peace initiative in 2002, which can provide a common vision to live with Iran in the region on conditions.
In summary : to avoid the policy of the brink of abyss in the region , the Iranian regime has to review its policies in the Arab Mashreq based on sectarian lines and destabilize the Arab countries through its militias in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and terrorist cells deployed in the Arabian Gulf states, and in return for the Arab Gulf states avoiding to employ paper of nationalities in Iran that it has its future negative impact on the cohesion of the Iranian nation, the Iranian regime to review its aggressive and arrogant policies taking from the principle of “exporting the revolution” as the permanent slogan towards the Arab countries in the regional environment, noting that the presence of Prince Turki al-Faisal to the Iranian opposition conference in Paris is only a clear message to the Iranian regime that the silence policy and lack of direct confrontation by the Arab Gulf states , led by Saudi Arabia, to face the Iran’s policy towards the Arabian Gulf in particular and the Levant in general is no longer going to work but on the contrary it has exacerbated the matters to the worse.
Rawabet Research and Strategic Studies Center