THE FUTURE OF THE REGION AFTER THE LIBERATION OF MOSUL?

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On 17   October 2016, the Iraqi government announced a military operation to restore the city of Mosul after about six months of preparation; the Iraqi forces succeeded in restoring the eastern side of the city after about a hundred days of fierce battles with the state organization, which took control of the city, in the June 10, 2014, and other cities in the provinces of Kirkuk, Diyala, Salahuddin and Anbar

On 19 February 2017, the Iraqi government announced the start of the third phase of the operation of   Qadimun Ya Naynawwa “We are coming, Nineveh” to restore the west side (the right coast) from the city, three weeks after the announcement of the restoration of entire eastern side, in the January 24 2017, supported by coalition aircraft and other international forces during which Iraqi forces faced fierce resistance by Daesh fighters. Eventually the Iraqi forces and the international coalition will be able to liberate the Mosul from the grip of Daesh early this year. In the context of post-Daesh, a central question arises what the nature of the region after the liberation of Mosul? The results of the battle of Mosul will determine the future of the region; either continuous civil, regional and international wars or federal governments to end the control of the central government?

Iraq’s current constitution do not establish , which produced all the crises of the Iraqi political system in the post-2003, which serves the Shiite component  to stay dominating on the rule of Iraq ,  the case of a community’s stability but will deepen the state of social anxiety . Will the United States of America, the official sponsors of the political regime in Iraq in cooperation with Iraq’s neighboring countries which are keen to end the Iranian influence in it,   work to change the constitution to govern Iraq by the Iraqi national secular elite?

If a fundamental change  did not  happen  in the nature of Iraqi politics , the battle of Mosul and the potential chaotic repercussions  could pave the way for the outbreak of the new Sunni insurgency  whether it would come  in the form of organizing Daesh – or organization of  «Qaeda in Iraq» , born-again, or a new Islamic organization along the lines of Jaysh Rijal al-Tariqa al-Naqshbandia JRTN « Army  of  the men of  Naqshbandi  », or others. It is likely that this possibility will be achieved, especially if the organization Daesh remains sheltered in Syria and take advantage of his presence there to launch operations in Iraq. Such an outcome would ensure the continued need for Baghdad to partner and provider of proficient Security Assistance, whether Washington or Tehran. The United States has a strong desire to be the chosen partner noting that proximity of the Iranian regime and its questions about the reliability of the United States will push Iraq likely to continue to avoid risks with Tehran. At the same time, the Iranians local agents will continue to engage in ethnic cleansing operations in the “liberated” areas in order to secure critical lines of communication and the protection of isolated or besieged Shiite communities.

Iranian regime believes that the Shiite presence in the Arab environment and especially oriental ones  constitutes  a scattered minority amid of the Sunni majority that are geographically  linked  ; and  to penetrate the Sunni  geography  , there is a need  to create  a demographic changes in the   human mass of Geography with a Sunni Arab majority, mostly, which extends from  Mosul which is relatively far from Iran into zones north of Aleppo, passing through the cities of Iraq, such as Tal Afar and Sinjar parallel to the border with Turkey in Syria and Iraq . And along the geography targeted by the Iranian regime, Iran works to promote, support and make a presence to the Centers for loyal forces across this geography through the promotion of the hotbeds of the Kurdish presence allied to it and already existing and the creation of a Shiite  emergency hotbeds to enable what we might call the Iranian networks represented by the parties or personalities or armed paramilitary groups  to meet  on loyalty to the Iranian regime, and implement  its policies.  The Iranian regime was able in the past decades  to  establish    a solid structure for such networks penetrated in the joints of some countries even now sometimes represent a shadow state, as is the case with the Lebanese Hezbollah, or state within a state; or  it  is the same state, as expected  to the role of the popular crowd in the future when   the     Iraqi army   was turned  to be  a reserve army  to  the popular crowd , paramilitary; a situation that is unprecedented in modern history where popular armies or semi-formal ones  formed as a reserve to support  the institution of the army of the state , and not vice versa.

In addition, it is likely that the Iranian regime is trying to build a land route through Iraq and Syria to provide its air route   to Damascus, which will use it to re supply «Hezbollah» and the Assad regime with a tightening of its influence in the Levant. Iranian regime in general is looking for frequent lines of communication in order to ensure flexibility to its network of agents and partners. While the aerial crossing will remain the most appropriate contact primary means for the transfer of troops there, the land crossing will enable the Iranian regime of sending urgent supplies needed at least by road at least cost. This crossing also will expand the options available to him if the United States has taken some day a move which is unlikely to establish a no-fly zone over Syria, or if Israel closed the airport in Damascus during a future war with «Hezbollah». Perhaps most importantly, that the land corridor  will enable the Iranian regime to expand its contacts with the local population, which creates opportunities to exercise influence and shaping developments in all parts of the Arab East. Indeed, signs appear today that the units of the popular crowd backed by the Iranian regime, which recently took over Tal Afar air base of Al Daesh   have been transforming it today to a gathering area to spread its influence in northern Iraq and Syria after the fall of Mosul and the availability of more Iraqi Shiite militias.

The Iranian regime has been the prime outside beneficiary of the United States to overthrow the Taliban regime in 2001 and the regime of Saddam Hussein in 2003, the two most important regional enemies to it at that time. Also today, if the United States did not take the appropriate preventive measures, the Iranian regime would be the first beneficiary of the destruction of Daesh and dismantling of what is called the Caliphate in Iraq. Indeed,  the US President-elect Donald Trump expressed  for these concerns during the final presidential debate in October , stressing that the Iranian regime would be a “big winner” when the international coalition   restores  of Mosul. And to avoid this result, it will require a combination of fixed steps in order to preserve the unity of the anti-Daesh Alliance, and support Iraq’s capacity to combat the insurgency, and the preservation of the sovereignty of Baghdad, and to deter the Iranian regime after the end of the battle of Mosul.

Today the international will has been matured to wrest Iraq from the grip of the Iranian regime, after the fire of what is happening in Iraq and Syria has spread to the parts of the world, especially the European countries and the United States, which can no longer remain a bystander. If his fingers were cut in the Middle East, it is not unlikely that this would lead to the end of the Iranian revolution, a project that began 38 years ago, and the fall of that big stone may result to the collapse and possibly the division of Iran, and this is another subject. The big trap to take out Iran outside of the wheel of history was the nuclear agreement, which represented the beginning of the end of the stage that was began in 1979 with the arrival of Khomeini from the caves of history to power, to spark the emergence of the religious parties in all Islamic countries to necrotize   the body of civil society and the State civil organs. the  rule system in Iran will not change during  days , but the nuclear deal insert it into  a struggle between those who sell religious slogans, and those who want to do deals and investments to revitalize Iran’s economy.  the conflict gradually will be deepened  after  it has become  clear to the Iranians what  they can lose. It was clearly evident in its  horror  by the prospect of the abolition of the US president Donald Trump to that agreement. Tehran today may not  be able to return to what it was before the lifting of sanctions, Iran  is now exporting more than twice  of what it has exported of the oil, and the companies are racing to explore investment opportunities, and it has to provide the appropriate  investment climate  gradually, which is a matter of time.

Rawabet Centre for Research and Strategic Studies is watching carefully the ongoing events in the region of visits of the intelligence services and the coordination of the conferences of the opposition, where the acceleration of events in this year reminds it of what happened in 2003, where it is going in the same contexts and may be the same results. Republicans under George W. management are the ones who brought down the rule of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, and this scene is repeated against the Iranian regime in the era of the Republican Donald Trump, and the US measures will be the main   factors of shaping the Iranian behavior in Iraq after the end of the battle of Mosul, the more decline of Washington, the more move forward of Teheran. It is likely that the repeat of the rapid withdrawal of coalition and dismantling its association between 2009 and 2011 will lead to encourage Tehran to increase its influence in Iraq and puts it in a better position to cope with the US activities there. In addition, the Iraqi government also is a key factor to determine Iran’s policy in Iraq. Whenever Washington had a strong relationship with Baghdad, the more US local shares   will be protected better. The question in this context: What to do in case of the failure of President Donald Trump management to counter Iran’s influence in Iraq peacefully? Where his remarks suggests during his election campaign and after assuming the presidential office in January of this year 20, that the next war will be against the Iranian regime, and this means that the military operations center will be Iraq and the countries of Iraqi and Iranian neighbors. What is the preparations of the Iranian regime for this war?   Will the Iranian regime depend on the allies of the Shiite parties, and whether these parties are still have any influence on the Shiite street in Iraq compared to the post-2003? Or that the Iranian regime will work to expand the umbrella of the “popular crowd” the new Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Iraq? In the framework of strengthening the Iranian regime’s alliances in Iraq,  the Iranian delegation  visited  on  9 / March,  Baghdad and met with leaders , ally of the Iranian regime, including the Supreme Islamic Council , Dawa Party, met with Nouri al-Maliki, Vice President of the Republic of Iraq, and also met with other Shiite figures. This delegation requested a meeting with the Iraqi Islamic Party, after their return from Istanbul conference. The delegation also commissioned some Shiite leaders to move on Salim al-Jubouri, head of the Iraqi Council of Representatives and some other Sunni leaders to satisfy  and attract them as the move aims to not  to let them to go behind the  Iraqi, Arab and regional political forces which are against the Iranian influence in Iraq.

During the meeting, the Iranian delegation expressed resentment at the Ankara conference, Iranians do not want to form a front against them in Iraq, especially after the increased US presence in Iraq. So the Iranian regime began working in various ways to gain new allies of the Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds due to the seriousness of the internal situation in Iran in order to cut the road to the United States and its allies. In this context, we wonder what is the future of Iraq as a unified state under a zero-American-Iranian conflict on it. On the American side, Brett Macgork an official in charge of the Iraqi and Iranian and Syrian file arrived to Baghdad. The question in this context? What is a military plan that  the United States will depend on it in its war against the Iranian regime? Will 10,000 thousand soldiers able to stop Iranian expansion in Iraq?

 

In a troubled regional environment,  news of the existence of serious discussions   behind-the-scenes are repeated  talking about the establishment of a regional alliance similar to “NATO”, led by the United States  with the participation of Arab countries, and its declared role is limited to the  security and intelligence cooperation. What is likely of some sort of credibility to these news published in US newspapers, including the newspaper “Wall Street Journal”  which is close to Trump administration, is the determination of this administration to convene an international conference to combat terrorism, organizing Daesh in particular,  with an  intensive Arabic presence as well as  sending ,  Trump Management , about extra thousand  troops to Syria to participate in the operation of “liberation” al-Riqa , capital of the organization, as well as the intensification of attacks against “Al Qaeda” in Yemen. It is noteworthy that this political and military movement, both are under counterterrorism title, but its undeclared goal  is the Iranian regime and its affiliates in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and  Arabs or the “axis of moderation”  in particular    will be  the “spearhead”  and the main financier for any US move in Syria, Iraq and possibly   Iran later on, . And what confirms the credibility  of these trends is the agreement of Crown Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman  and the American President Donald Trump during their meeting  on Tuesday that the Iranian regime represents a security threat to the region, as it tries to gain legitimacy in the Islamic world by supporting terrorist organizations with an aim   to arrive  to the  Muslim Qiblah ( direction of prayer of the Ka’bah ) in Mecca , which gives them a legitimacy that they miss in the Muslim world.

On the other hand the Iranian regime understands the details of this US strategy of confidentiality and stated objectives, there are indications that  the Iranian regime was preparing  to it including  the threats of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader to bomb the Israeli Dimona reactor in the heart of the Negev desert, and the containers of material toxic Alaimunaa   in the vicinity of the city of Haifa, and in both cases  Israeli material and human losses will be terrifying at all standards, so that the settlers in the city of Haifa  began a movement demanding the Israeli government to remove these warehouses from their city and moved to another place.

Scene seems an American escalation will meet with Iranian escalation of course. Iranian regime’s tools and his arms with wide production  on the ground in Iraq, noting that it  began  to localize in Syria,  and clearly in Iraq by  increasing troops and deployed without noise and the phases  and in  scattered places , news are shocking certainly for  terrorism of Daaesh , who is on the edge of Anbar province, in the cities of Anah and Rawa and Qaim, and preparations and anticipation  for the battles are present in creating crowds of clans who   has nothing to do  with the sectarian popular crowd  and  fighting with the military forces for the Liberation  of their areas .the reaction   comes from some of the leaders of the crowd who refused to share additional numbers of American troops in the war against terrorism, despite the fact that the Americans are involved in the large effective air support  in the battle of Mosul as well as in supporting  the ground troops. Why they are sensitive and fear from the decisive war on terrorism? The answer in the next US conflict with Iran, the first state sponsor of terrorism in the world, a war will be fought  by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, but its fuel from Iraqi employees of the crowd, a fuel is available, cheap and  under the demand and order Wali al-Faqih, of course.

In April / May 2003, the United States hit Iraq with “machete” and destroyed it, would the US to eat the Iranian regime “with a fork and knife,” starting with Iraq through in Yemen and Syria and the end of Lebanon. Then the stage begins of the face of the Iranian regime from the inside, where the United States will work to support the Iranian opposition abroad and support also the national and religious components that have suffered decades of oppression of the Iranian regime.

In  the framework of war against al Daesh  and the Iranian regime in the future ,  the United States and neighboring countries with full force are trying to end the phenomenon of Daesh and consequences of  its  appearance as establishing the popular crowd, the military wing of the Iranian regime in Iraq and based on private information obtained by the Rawabet  Center for  Research and Strategic Studies that  in the meeting of the interior Arab ministers  to be held in Tunisia, the popular crowd will be at the top  of the agenda of the work    of Arab Interior ministers, and at the request of the Kingdom of Bahrain and with the support of the Arab Gulf states , it will be introduced at the meeting  to consider  the popular crowd  as a terrorist force. If this request is approved, the hot face will be anticipated between the Gulf countries from the Arab side and Iraq on the other. No solution to the problems of the region, but the unity of the Arab countries on the one hand, and an end to the strife between Shiites and Sunnis on the other hand. Unless it is achieved, Arabs and Muslims without exception will pay exorbitant bill

The question is what the fate of Iraq and Iran after the liberation of Mosul from Daesh , are they on their way to the division, do we see Baku, Azerbaijan, and Aboriginal to unite to form a Greater Azerbaijan,  will  the Iraqi Kurdistan and Kurdistan of Iran and Kurdistan of  Turkey be united to form  greater Kurdistan,  and will Baluchistan  to join  the major Baluchistan,  and will  Ahvaz and Abadan and Arabstan  of Iran be a new Gulf state.

Unit for Strategic Studies

Translated by: Mudhaffar al-Kusairi

Rawabet Research and Strategic Studies Center

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